USDZAR peaked during the summer after touching 15.50 and has been posting consecutive lower highs and lower lows on the daily chart ever since. What’s more, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) recently crossed below the 200-day one, completing a so-called ‘death cross’, which is another bearish sign. The picture is therefore negative, and for that to change, the bulls would need to push the price above 14.85.
Momentum oscillators – the RSI and the MACD – are mixed, and both stand near their neutral levels, providing no clear indications about how the price action might evolve in the immediate term.
If the bears retake the reins, another push lower could stall near 14.10 initially, where a downside break could pave the way for one more test of 13.92. Another negative violation would signal a continuation of the downtrend, turning the focus to the 13.82 area next. Even lower, the bears might struggle near 13.59, the area that halted the drop back in late November 2018.
On the upside, the first obstacle for buyers would be the intersection of the 14.50 zone and the 50-day SMA. If they pierce above, the 200-day SMA at 14.58 would be next in line to cap the advance. If that fails to hold too, the bulls will likely aim for 14.85, where another violation would turn the picture to neutral.
Summarizing, so long as the price remains below 14.85, the outlook is negative.