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USD Index Outook: Initial Signs Of Recovery Stall Are Developing On Daily Chart

Thursday’s risk aversion-inspired bounce from one-month low (96.16), extended on Friday but gains were capped by falling 10DMA /50% retracement of 97.78/96.16 bear-leg. Subsequent easing is generating initial signal of recovery stall, but more evidence will be needed to confirm scenario. Return and close below broken Fibo 23.6% level at 96.54 would weaken near-term structure and open way for retest of Thursday’s low (96.16), violation of which would increase risk of extension towards 95.68 (10 June low). Daily MA’s in bearish setup and momentum in negative territory, along with formation of 55/200DMA death cross, continue to weigh. The index is on track for the third consecutive bearish weekly close, but needs break and close below cracked 200WMA (96.24) to avert risk of bear-trap formation on weekly chart.

Res: 96.73, 96.94, 97.04, 97.28
Sup: 96.48, 96.32, 96.16, 95.87

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