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Yield Continue To Drift Higher

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Fundamental analysis of Forex market

Notes/Observations

  • Focus remains on rising bond yields
  • US $1.9T stimulus seen passing the House later this week
  • ECB meets on Thursday and likely to emphasize its readiness to use the flexibility of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program to counteract tightening of financial conditions
  • BOJ expected to conclude its policy review next week
  • Germany Jan Industrial Production missed expectations

Asia:

  • China Feb YTD Trade Balance: $103.3B v $59.0Be; YTD Exports: 60.6% v 40.0%e; YTD Imports: 22.2% v 16.0%e
  • China Feb Foreign Reserves: $3.205T v $3.200Te
  • China Foreign Min Wang Yi called on US President Biden to stop “crossing lines and playing with fire” over Taiwan, there was no room for compromise

Europe:

  • UK confidence is at a 12-month high ahead of reopening of restaurants and shops
  • UK Chief Negotiator Frost: EU needs to stop sulking over Brexit and turn it into a success; EU’s behavior “had significantly undermined cross-community confidence in the Protocol”
  • Italy PM Draghi to present his 1st public speech on Monday (Mar 8th); could mention the country’s worsening virus situation and announce possible new restrictions
  • Italy Health Min Speranza: The second wave of pandemic never stopped, we’re seeing a very strong pickup due to the variants, which is leading us to take measures that are more restrictive.

Americas:

  • Senate passed Pres Biden’s $1.9T COVID relief bill (vote was 50-49 along party lines. The House planned to vote on the bill on Tues, March 9th. Sen Machin (D-WV) held out for a lower weekly unemployment benefit at $300/week through Sept 6th

Energy:

  • Saudi Energy Ministry: Oil storage tank farm at the Ras Tanura export terminal on the country’s Persian Gulf coast was attacked by a drone from the sea . Output unaffected. Houthis launched drone and missile attack over the weekend on facilities i (Insight: Ras Tanura is the world’s largest oil terminal, capable of exporting roughly 6.5M bpd). Brent oil moved above $70/barrel

Speakers/Fixed income/FX/Commodities/Erratum

Equities

  • Indices [Stoxx600 +0.67% at 411.26, FTSE -0.10% at 6,623.87, DAX +0.90% at 14,046.30, CAC-40 +0.57% at 5,815.55, IBEX-35 +0.81% at 8,354.00, FTSE MIB +1.41% at 23,288.50, SMI +0.81% at 10,693.23, S&P 500 Futures -0.73%]
  • Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices open generally higher and advanced further into the green as the session progressed; financials and materials sectors leading to the upside include; utilities and telecom sectors among those underperforming; Energy sector supported by boost in crude price following attack on refinery in Saudi Arabia; Russia closed for holiday; Deliveroo confirms to list on LSE; SWM raises and finalizes offer for Scapa; Hoegh LNG to be taken over by Leif Hoegh and Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Partners; Endesa acquires renewables project; Exor takes stake in Christian Louboutin;events expected in the upcoming US session include Cigna investor day and Stellantis special shareholder meeting

Equities

  • Consumer discretionary: Pearson [PSON.UK] +3% (earnings), Shoe Zone [SHOE.UK] -8% (earnings)
  • Energy: Hoegh LNG Holdings [HLNG.NP] +33% (offer)
  • Healthcare: Bavarian Nordic [BAVA.DK] +9% (vaccine data)
  • Technology: Micro Focus [MCRO.UK] -6% (court decision)

Speakers

  • BOE Gov Bailey stated that the economic outlook is positive with large doses of cautionary realism. Recognize the increasingly 2-sided nature of risks. Toolkit decisions should not be interpreted as a signal about the future path of monetary policy. Contingency planning for negative rates implies nothing about BOE intentions in that direction
  • Bank of Spain (BOS) Dep Gov Delgado stated that restriction on banking sector dividends likely to be lifted in Sept
  • Poland Central Bank (NBP) Quarterly Inflation Report raised the 2021 GDP growth forecast from 3.1% to 4.1% while cutting the 2022 GDP growth from 5.7% to 5.4%. The QIR raised the 2021 CPI forecast from 2.6% to 3.1% and raised the 2022 CPI outlook from 2.7% to 2.8%
  • BOJ Dep Gov Amamiya stated that the upcoming March review would make easing more effective and sustainable; needed to make easing nimble when needed. Review to ensure that BOJ could act effectively and timely to economic changes. Reiterated stance that would not hesitate to ease policy if needed. Saw room to be creative on yield control; must lower the cost of policy by heightening sustainability of framework; room to make some tweaks to YCC

Currencies/Fixed Income

  • Higher yields, faster vaccination prospects and reopening of the global economy continued to give the USD some tailwinds as the greenback was at its best levels since November.
  • EUR/USD at 1.1875 and approaching its 200-day moving average (seen at 1.1825). Focus turns to the weekly QE stats later today with ECB likely picking up the pace of purchases. ECB rate decision on Thursday and likely seen emphasizing its readiness to use the flexibility of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program to counteract tightening of financial conditions
  • USD/JPY moved above the 108.50 level ahead of next week’s policy review. BOJ Dep Gov Amamiya still sought ways to allow more moves in Japan’s bond yields at next week’s policy review even after Gov Kuroda rejected the idea of widening a range around its zero target

Economic data

  • (SE) Sweden SEB Housing-Price Indicator: 61 v 57 prior
  • (CH) Swiss Feb Unemployment Rate: 3.6% v 3.8%e; Unemployment Rate (seasonally adj): 3.6% v 3.6%e
  • (DE) Germany Jan Industrial Production M/M: -2.5% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: -3.9% v -3.7%e
  • (NO) Norway Jan Industrial Production M/M: 1.1% v 3.3% prior; Y/Y: 5.9% v 2.7% prior
  • (NO) Norway Jan Manufacturing Production M/M: +2.5% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: +1.0% v -1.2% prior
  • (DK) Denmark Jan Industrial Production M/M: 2.0% v 1.2% prior
  • (ES) Spain Jan Industrial Production M/M: -0.7% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: -2.2% v -0.6%e; Industrial Output NSA (unadj) Y/Y: -6.9% v +2.2% prior
  • (CZ) Czech Q4 Average Real Monthly Wage Y/Y: 3.8% v 1.0%e
  • (CH) Swiss weekly Total Sight Deposits (CHF): 703.1B v 704.1B prior; Domestic Sight Deposits: 636.0B v 640.8B prior
  • (EU) Euro Zone Mar Sentix Investor Confidence: 5.0 v 1.4e

Fixed income Issuance

  • (EU) ESM opened its book to sell €2.0B in Dec 2026 bonds; guidance seen 1bps to mid-swaps; order book over €8/0B

Looking Ahead

  • (CO) Colombia Feb Consumer Confidence Index: No est v -20.8 prior
  • (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats
  • (IL) Israel Central Bank Feb Minutes
  • 05:30 ((DE) Germany to sell €4.0B in 6-month BuBills
  • 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
  • 06:00 (IL) Israel Q4 Current Account Balance: No est v $6.4B prior
  • 06:00 (BR) Brazil Feb FGV Inflation IGP-DI M/M: 2.3%e v 2.9% prior; Y/Y: 29.4%e v 26.6% prior
  • 06:00 (CL) Chile Feb CPI M/M: 0.4%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 3.1%e v 3.1% prior
  • 06:00 (IL) Israel to sell 2023, 2025, 2030, 2031 and 2037 bonds
  • 06:00 (RO) Romania to sell RON400M in 3.25% 2026 Bonds
  • 06:25 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
  • 06:30 (CL) Chile Feb Trade Balance: $1.1Be v $1.7B prior; Total Exports: No est v $7.1B prior; Total Imports: No est v $5.3B prior; Copper Exports: No est v $2.7B prior
  • 06:30 (CL) Chile Feb International Reserves: No est v $39.0B prior
  • 07:00 (MX) Mexico Feb Consumer Confidence: No est v 38.4 prior
  • 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index
  • 08:00 (IN) India announces details of upcoming bond sale (held on Fridays)
  • 09:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell €B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills
  • 09:45 (EU) ECB weekly QE bond buying update
  • 10:00 (US) Jan Final Wholesale Inventories M/M: 1.3%e v 1.3% prelim; Wholesale Trade Sales M/M: 1.0%e v 1.2% prior
  • 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 13-Week and 26-Week Bills
  • 16:00 (NZ) New Zealand Feb ANZ Heavy Truckometer M/M: No est v -3.8% prior
  • 16:45 (NZ) New Zealand Q4 Manufacturing Activity Q/Q: No est v 10.0% prior; Manufacturing Activity Volume Q/Q: No est v 17.3% prior
  • 17:30 (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 110.3 prior
  • 18:00 (KR) South Korea Jan Current Account Balance: No est v $11.5B prior; Balance of Goods (BOP): No est v $10.5B prior
  • 18:30 (JP) Japan Jan Labor Cash Earnings Y/Y: -1.6%e v -3.0% prior (revised from -3.2%); Real Cash Earnings Y/Y: -0.7%e v -1.7% prior (revised from -1.9%)
  • 18:30 (JP) Japan Jan Household Spending Y/Y: -2.1%e v -0.6% prior
  • 18:50 (JP) Japan Q4 Final GDP Q/Q: 3.0%e v 3.0% prelim; GDP Annualized Q/Q: 12.6%e v 12.7% prelim; GDP Nominal Q/Q: 2.5%e v 2.5% prelim
  • 18:50 (JP) Japan Feb M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 9.5%e v 9.4% prior; M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 7.9%e v 7.8% prior
  • 19:00 (NZ) New Zealand Mar Preliminary Business Confidence: No est v 7 prior; Activity Outlook: No est v 21.3 prior
  • 19:01 (UK) Feb BRC Sales Like-For-Like Y/Y: No est v 7.1% prior
  • 19:30 (AU) Australia Feb Business Confidence: No est v 10 prior; Business Conditions: No est v 7 prior
  • 20:00 (PH) Philippines Jan Unemployment Rate: No est v 8.7% prior
  • 21:30 (KR) South Korea to sell KRW1.1T in 2-Year Bonds
  • 22:00 (TH) Thailand Central Bank to sell THB55B in 3-month bills
  • 23:30 (HK) Hong Kong to sell 3-month and 6-month Bills
  • 22:30 (JP) Japan to sell 6-Month Bills
  • 22:35 (JP) Japan to sell 5-year JGB bonds