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US Dollar Index Outlook: Dollar Index Falls To One-Month Low But Bears May Take A Breather

The dollar holds in red against its major counterparts for almost two weeks and hit one-month low on Thursday.

Falling US Treasury yields and signals that the US central bank will keep ultra-low interest for some time, despite recent strong economic data which point to accelerating economic recovery, continue to deflate the greenback.

Bears cracked significant supports at 91.55/51 (50% retracement of 89.66/93.45 upleg / 55DMA) but failed to make a clear break at the first attempt, facing headwinds from the nearby rising daily cloud (cloud top lays at 91.32) and signaling a brief pause before resuming the downtrend from 93.45 (Mar 31 high).

Strongly oversold stochastic on daily chart and 14-d momentum turning north in deep negative territory, support the notion.

Upticks should be capped by barriers at 92.00/15 zone (broken Fibo 38.2% / falling 10DMA) to keep bears in play.

Caution on extension above broken falling 200DMA (91.27) which reverted to solid resistance.

US Mar retail sales and weekly jobless claims are key events for dollar today and eyed for fresh signals.

Res: 91.79, 91.86, 92.00, 92.15.
Sup: 91.51, 91.27, 91.11, 91.03.

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