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Gold Surges, Oil Stays Resilient, Stocks Choppy as US Data Shows No Signs of Transitory Inflation

Just like William Shatner, US stocks went on a wild this morning. Wall Street took a brief break to watch Star Trek’s William Shatner, a 90-year old legend set a record in space with a Blue Origin spaceflight.

The S&P 500 index declined after the latest inflation report showed no signs of being transitory, prompting Treasury markets to anticipate a September Fed rate hike next year. The Nasdaq was initially dragged down after reports that Apple could cut their iPhone 13 production targets for 2021 by as many as 10 million units. Short-dated Treasuries jumped after the inflation report, while the 10-year and 30-year declined.

Despite above trend growth for 2022, stocks may struggle over the short-term on rising interest rate expectations from inflation fears, poor inventories for the holidays, and elevated energy prices. A decline in long-end rates and expectations that Apple’s revenue shortfall in Q4 will just go to Q1 helped the Nasdaq post a modest gain. Earnings took a backseat to the inflation report and reset of Fed rate hike expectations. JPMorgan posted solid results, Delta warned Q4 might not be profitable given the surge in fuel prices, and BlackRock delivered robust results.

CPI

Rising food prices, energy costs, utilities, and new vehicles all confirmed what every American already knows… Inflation remains elevated. Core inflation mostly steadied but that was weighed down again over weakness in travel. The transitory argument is weakening and that trend will continue to move forward Fed rate hike expectations.
Supply chain

The White House announced that the Port of Los Angeles will switch to a 24/7 schedule to help ease the bottleneck issues. Walmart, Fedex, UPS, Target, Samsung, Home Depot and more are expected to embrace the nonstop schedule. The White House wants to make sure Americans are pleased with Biden’s agenda going into midterm elections next year and exceedingly high gas prices and backordered holiday presents will not bode well.

Apple

It seems semiconductor manufacturers Broadcom and Texas Instruments can’t meet Apple’s iPhone 13 demand, a sign that the chip shortage is nowhere near over and that the iPhone supercycle is alive and well. Holiday shoppers that want to give the gift of iPhone 13 need to buy now. Apple shares fell on the Bloomberg report that this year’s iPhone target might fall 10 million phones short due to supply chain issues. Apple will still remain a favorite mega-cap tech stock as this only delays revenue from the fourth quarter to the next quarter.

JP morgan

A solid ear