The Dollar Index Hit A Year High, The Focus Today Is On Inflation Data And The Publication Of FOMC Minutes

Fundamental analysis of Forex market

The US stock market declined on Tuesday. At the close of the stock market, the Dow Jones index decreased by 0.34%, the S&P 500 index decreased by 0.24%, and the NASDAQ Composite lost 0.14%. US Fed officials Bullard, Bostick, and Brainard believe the labor market has achieved the necessary growth to allow the central bank to cut its $120 billion a month asset purchase program. Therefore, it would be right to start cutting the QE program in November. The longer supply chain problems persist, the more likely inflation expectations will change. However, inflation is likely to stay longer than predicted.

Southwest Airlines again canceled more than 350 flights yesterday. The cancellations accounted for 10% of Southwest’s schedule, and at least 1,400 other flights (40%) were delayed. Apple is likely to cut its projected iPhone 13 production targets for 2021 by 10 million units due to chip shortage issues.

Moderna has no plans to share its COVID-19 vaccine formula, Chairman Noubar Afeyan said. Moderna executives have concluded that production extension is the best way to solve the problem of global supplies. The vaccine maker could expand production and deliver billions of additional doses next year.

European stock indices traded flat yesterday. Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 each lost 0.3%, while Britain’s FTSE 100 decreased by 0.2%. Spain’s IBEX 35 and Italy’s FTSE MIB added 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively. According to the ZEW Economic Institute, Europe is still struggling with constraints on supplies of raw materials and intermediate goods. Analysts at the institute forecast a drop in corporate earnings, especially in export-oriented industries such as automotive and chemicals/pharmaceuticals.

The price of gas in Europe decreased to $970 per thousand cubic meters. However, EU Energy Commissioner Simson said yesterday that gas prices were likely to remain high throughout the winter. Oil prices have stabilized slightly and traded in the $80-81 range for WTI crude.

The energy crisis reduced aluminum supplies, the price of which hit a 13-year high. Prices of other industrial metals are also rising because of inflationary pressures. Coal hit another price record in China as floods in the country exacerbated the energy crisis.

Asian stock indices traded without a single dynamic yesterday. China’s CSI 300 has slightly changed from the previous day. Australia’s ASX 200 added 0.06%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 0.2%. The Hong Kong stock market was closed this morning due to a typhoon.

China’s export growth accelerated in September, despite expectations of a slowdown amid a nationwide power shortage that forced factories to cut production.

China may ban all media not funded by the Communist Party in accordance with the new rules that are likely to restrict freedom of speech further. The government wants to ban private companies from broadcasting live anything related to politics, economics, military and foreign affairs, as well as major events or incidents in society, culture, technology, health care, education, and sports.

Main market quotes:

  • S&P 500 (F) 4,350.65 −10.54 (−0.24%)
  • Dow Jones 34,378.34 −117.72 (−0.34%)
  • DAX 15,146.87 −52.27 (−0.34%)
  • FTSE 100 7,130.23 −16.62 (−0.23%)
  • USD Index 94.51 +0.20 (+0.21%)

Important events for today:

  • UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • US FOMC Meeting Minutes (m/m) at 21:00 (GMT+3);
  • US FOMC Member Braindard’s Speech at 23:30 (GMT+3).