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EUR/USD Approaches Key Breakout, NFP Impresses

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Technical analysis of Forex market

Key Highlights

  • EUR/USD is struggling to stay above the 1.1520 support.
  • It is facing a major hurdle near the 1.1620 zone on the 4-hours chart.
  • GBP/USD declined heavily below 1.3600 and 1.3500.
  • The US Nonfarm Payrolls increased 531K in Oct 2021, better than the market forecast of 425K.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro started a fresh decline after it failed to settle above 1.1650 against the US Dollar. EUR/USD declined below the 1.1550 support and is currently struggling to recover.

Looking at the 4-hours chart, the pair even spiked below the 1.1520 support. It settled well below the 1.1600 zone, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours).

A low was formed near 1.1513 and the pair is now attempting a recovery wave. On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the 1.1600 level.

The next major resistance is near the 1.1610 level and the 100 SMA. The 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1692 swing high to 1.1513 low is also near 1.1610.

EUR/USD needs to gain strength above 1.1610 and 1.1620 to start a fresh increase. The next major resistance could be 1.1650. Any more gains could lead the pair towards the 1.1720 level.

On the downside, an initial support is near 1.1520 level. The next major support is near 1.1500, below which there is a risk of a larger decline towards 1.1440.

Fundamentally, the US nonfarm payrolls report for Oct 2021 was released this past Friday by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The market was looking for an increase of 425K.

The actual result was better than the market forecast, as the US NFP increased 531K in Oct 2021. The last reading was also revised up from 194K to 312K. Besides, the US Unemployment rate declined from 4.8% to 4.6%.

Overall, the US Dollar could gain strength in the near term. Looking at GBP/USD, there was a sharp drop below 1.3500. Besides, USD/JPY corrected lower below 114.00.

Economic Releases

  • Euro Zone Sentix Investor Confidence for Nov 2021 – Forecast 18.6, versus 16.9 previous.