EUR/USD Resigned to Pressure

At the beginning of the second week of November, euro/dollar is trading at 1.1560. The market keeps supporting the USD, and there are reasons for it.

According to statistics, the unemployment rate in October dropped to 4.6%, which is quite good. Average hourly wage over the reporting period increased by 0.4% m/m, which is a great result. The NFP in October grew above the expected – by 531 thousand.

On the whole, the employment statistics was positive, which supported the dollar. However, it felt quite confident earlier: the results of the Fed conference in November went according the expectations. The Fed cut down on stimulation as forecast.

On H4, EUR/USD performed a wave of decline to 1.1514 and a correction to 1.1560. The correction might continue to 1.1626. When it is over, the next wave of decline should continue, aiming at 1.1480. The goal is local. Then we expect a link of growth to 1.1560. Technically, this scenario is supported by the MACD: its signal line is trading below zero. Today, the indicator signals a possible correction. When it is over, we expect the signal lines renew next lows.

On H1, EUR/USD bounces off 1.1615 and performed another link of a declining wave to 1.1514. Today the market has performed a correction to 1.1558 and at the moment is trading in the consolidation range. With an escape upwards, a pathway to 1.1605 (at least) will open. With an escape downwards, trend will continue to 1.1480. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is trading above 50. We expect growth to 80. Then the indicator might drop to 20.