NZDUSD broke below August 20, 2021 low (0.6805) and now shows a 5 swing sequence from February 25, 2021 high favoring more downside. A 5 swing sequence is an incomplete sequence and needs another leg lower to end 7 swing. Short term, cycle from October 21, 2021 high is in progress as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from October 21 peak, wave 1 ended at 0.6976 and rally in wave 2 ended at 0.70527. Pair then resumes lower in wave 3 towards 0.68 and bounce in wave 4 ended at 0.6839.
Near term, as far as pivot at 0.7055 high stays intact, pair could see further downside to end wave 5. Alternatively, pair may have already ended wave 5 and consequently cycle from October 21 peak may have ended. Either way, we expect a larger degree 3 waves rally should happen soon to correct the cycle from October 21 high. Afterwards, due to the 5 swing sequence from February 25, 2021 high, this rally should likely fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for more downside. A 7 swing structure from February 25 has potential 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension target towards 0.615 – 0.655.
NZD/USD 60 minutes Elliott Wave chart
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