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Market Morning Briefing: Pound Has Bounced Slightly From 1.32

STOCKS

Crucial supports seen below current levels. All holding for now but we need to see if the indices can go into a sideways range before a sharp break out is seen in the medium term. The ranges are intact for Nifty at 17800-16800, for Dax between 15050-15500, for Nikkei between 28250-27500 and for Dow and Shanghai within 35500-34000 and 3625-3500/3550 respectively. Sensex too can be ranged for now within 58000-57000. Respective breaks on either side of the mentioned ranges are needed for cues on further direction from here. Till then we wait and watch.

Dow (34580.08, -59.71, -0.17%) has risen slightly but holds above support near 34000. The view remains bullish to see a rise towards 35000/35500 while above 34000. Broad range of 35500-34000 to hold for the next couple of weeks.

DAX (15169.98, -93.13, -0.61%) has declined well while below immediate trend resistance near 15500. The index can trade sideways between 15100/15050-15500 region before breaking higher to head towards 15700/800 on the upside.

Nikkei (27866.81, -162.76, -0.58%) fell sharply from 28081 but overall trades above support at 27500. The index has immediate resistance at 28250/200 which if holds can send the index back to 27500 or lower; else a rise above 28250 is needed to sustain to move up towards 28750 or higher in the medium term.

Shanghai (3619.11, +11.68, +0.32%) finally moved up above 3600, made a high of 3626.13 before coming down from there. The index has immediate resistance at 3625 which seems to be holding for now. While below 3625, we can see a dip towards 3600 just now.

Nifty (17196.70, -204.95, +1.18%) came down sharply on Friday after testing a high of 17489.80. The index has failed to stay above 17200. While below 17200 the chances of a fall towards 17000/16800 remain intact. On the upside immediate resistance is now seen at 17600 and higher at 17750/800. While these mentioned resistances hold, it would be difficult for Nifty to become strongly bullish. A broad range of 17800-16800 may hold for the next few weeks.

Sensex (57696.46, -764.83, -1.31%) has fallen below 58000 again. While below 58000 the view is bearish to see a dip towards 57000.

COMMODITIES

Brent and WTI have risen slightly but can move more in the coming sessions before a decline is again seen. Gold needs to sustain above 1780 to head higher to 1810; else a fall back to 1770/60 cannot be negated. Silver is within 22-24/24.50. Copper has support at 4.0 and 4.20 which if hold can produce a bounce towards 4.40/45 in the near term.

Brent (71.42) is holding above 65/66 and WTI (67.78) is holding above 61. A rise to 74 and 71 respectively looks likely for the near term. Any rise seen now can be corrective and short lived with another down-leg in place to be seen over the next 2-weeks.

Gold (1787.80) has risen back above 1780. Immediate resistance is seen near 1890 a break above which is needed for Gold to rise back again towards 1810. Else a fall back towards 1770/60 cannot be ruled out.

Silver (22.56) has important support at 22 and while that holds, a rise to 23-24 is likely in the medium term. A broad range of 22-24/24.50 may hold for now.

Copper (4.2965) can rise while above immediate support near 4.20/25 and head towards 4.40/45. Failure to hold above 4.20 can drag it down to lower support at 4.00.

FOREX

Dollar Index may move higher within the 95.50-97 range while Euro can fall towards 1.12-1.1142 in the next few sessions. Dollar Yen too may remain within 112.50-114 region while EURJPY can fall towards 127.50-127 while below 128. Pound is bearish while below 1.33. USDINR has immediate resistance at 75.20/25 which if breaks can take the spot higher towards 75.50/75 before any reversal is seen from there.

Dollar Index (96.268) is holding above 96. Immediate range of 95.50-97 may hold for the next few sessions.

Euro (1.1291) seems to be falling while below 1.13. An eventual test of immediate resistance zone near 1.12-1.1142 looks possible.

EURJPY (127.57) has broken below 130 to sustain and as warned, an eventual fall to 127 is possible soon. Any break below 127 thereafter can drag it lower towards 125 in the medium term. Watch price action within 127-128.

Aussie (0.7018) has paused near 0.69 and if it sees a bounce, we may expect a rise to 0.71 on the upside. Failure to bounce from here can take it down to 0.69.

Pound (1.3236) has bounced slightly from 1.32 and can rise towards 1.3350-1.34 on a break above 1.3267-1.3284 in the near term. For now 1.32 seems to be holding well and may lead to an immediate rise to 1.3284 or slightly higher to 1.33. Thereafter we need to see if the pound breaks higher or faces stiff rejection.

Dollar-Yen (112.96) has fallen from 113.61 seen on Friday. The pair has not been able to sustain higher but trades within a sideways range of 114-112.50 for the past few sessions. A break on either side will pave way for the next movement. Till then we may expect the sideways range to continue.

USDCNY (6.3690) tested 6.3770 on Friday before falling again from there. Overall view is bearish while below 6.40/39. A break below 6.36 will drag it lower towards 6.35 on the downside in the medium term.

{USDINR (75.1675) closed higher on Friday, moving towards the upper resistance at 75.20/25. If a break above this is seen today, it would open up chances of a further rise towards 75.50/75 (possibly the last leg of upmove within the rise seen from 74.00) on the upside before a reversal is seen from there. A break above 75.20/25 will need a close watch today.

INTEREST RATES

The US Treasury yields continue to fall at the far-end (10Yr and 30Yr). The 10Yr has key support at 1.35% which will have to hold to avoid a deeper fall to 1.2%. The 30Yr looks weaker than the 10Yr to fall further from here. The German yields continue to fall in line with our expectation and are keeping our bearish view intact. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have risen on Friday and have room to move up further to test their resistances and then reverse lower again.

The US 2Yr (0.61%) remains stable, the 5Yr (1.17%) has dipped slightly while the 10 Yr (1.38%) and the 30Yr (1.70%) have declined sharply. The 10Yr has a key support at 1.35%. A strong bounce above 1.4% from here is needed to avoid a break below 1.35% and see a further fall to 1.2%. The 30Yr looks weaker to test 1.6% on the downside although there is some support at 1.7%.

The German 2Yr (-0.76%) and 5Yr (-0.64%) yields remain stable while the 10Yr (-0.39%) and 30Yr (-0.11%) have declined further. Our bearish view of seeing a fall to -0.45% / -0.5% on the 10Yr and -0.1% / -0.2% on the 30Yr remains intact.

The Indian 10Yr (6.3693%) and the 5Yr (5.7014%) have moved up on Friday. The 10Yr can test the range resistance at 6.38% and is likely to reverse lower to keep the 6.3%-6.38% range intact. The 5Yr can test 5.72%-5.74% while it sustains above 5.7%. Thereafter it can come down again 5.68% and lower.

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