Aussie Dips ahead of Retail Sales

Fundamental analysis of Forex market

Aussie slips below 0.75 line

After a strong week, the Australian dollar has reversed directions and dropped below the 0.75 line on Monday. Investors will be keeping an eye on Australian retail sales, which will be released on Tuesday. The markets are expecting a gain of 1.0%, down from 1.8% in January.

The month of March has been kind to the Australian dollar, with sharp gains of 3.47%. The risk currency has not been affected by the tumultuous reaction in the markets to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, although risk apprehension is certainly higher since the war began.

Investors are also uneasy over the situation in China, which continues to battle an upsurge in Covid cases. The government has imposed rolling lockdowns on Shanghai, which has a population of some 25 million. The property crisis has been overshadowed by the Ukraine crisis, but it hasn’t gone away. Since Evergrande’s default last year, Chinese property developers are finding themselves locked out of the global debt market, and the country’s third-largest developer missed two bond payments on Friday.

There is plenty of risk apprehension to go around, but the Aussie’s savior has been the resource-based economy of the Lucky Country, as the range of commodities that Australia exports have been in huge demand as prices continue to head higher.

Australia releases its annual budget on Tuesday, and the surge in commodities will allow the Morrison government to narrow its budget deficit and also give out some goodies, as it eyes a federal election later this year. The budget is expected to include help for homeowners and a temporary reduction in the tax on petrol.

AUD/USD Technical

  • 0.7414 is the first line of support. Below, there is support at 0.7313
  • There is resistance at 0.7577 and 0.7639