US-China Trade: 60% Probability of Interim Deal Next Week
US and China meet for high-level trade negotiations next week, sources say 10-11 October. Below is a quick overview. We put a 60% probability of an interim trade deal, which should help to de – escalate the trade war. However,...
European Update – PMI, Economy, Brexit, Gold, Oil
Markets lower on renewed growth fears Sentiment is fragile after a series of weak PMI readings this week, with the US ISM number particularly shocking investors and sending stock markets tumbling. – advertisement – Naturally, Trump was quick to point...
US: The Contraction in Manufacturing Activity Deepens in September
The information contained in this report has been prepared for the information of our customers by TD Bank Financial Group. The information has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but the accuracy or completeness of the information is...
ECB Snaps, Crackles, then Watches Rates Pop
Executive Summary The ECB announced a substantial package of easing measures at its September meeting, but the market response mostly fell flat, and indeed if anything financial conditions appear to have tightened since the announcement. Most market interest rates are...
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary: One More Ball to Juggle
U.S. Review Politics Takes Center Stage The release of the transcript of President Trump’s phone conversation with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and the whistleblower complaint overshadowed most of this week’s economic reports and took bond yields modestly lower. Consumer confidence...
The Weekly Bottom Line: Political Risks Heighten Economic Uncertainty
U.S. Highlights A downturn in U.S. consumer confidence and rising political risks as the House began impeachment inquiries against President Trump, triggered volatility in global markets. U.S. personal incomes jumped in August (to 0.4% month-on-month from 0.1% previously), even as...
US Dollar Mixed on Trade Optimism and Impeachment News
The limited trade agreement between the US and Japan boosted trade optimism that a similar deal could be struck between the US and China. Both sides continue to send mixed messages, but so far, the balance has been on the...
Week Ahead: US-China Trade Talks Could Overshadow RBA, NFP
After a relatively quiet week, the week ahead is going to be a busier one. For one, the economic calendar is full of market-moving data and the Reserve Bank of Australia looks set to cut rates one more time on...
Low Blows and Sterling Lows
A torrid week in politics and dovish BoE comments are grim news for the pound Considering the clobbering from headlines it received this week, sterling is holding up quite well, though appearances can be deceptive. It is acknowledged that whilst...
Impeachment Drama Stirs the Pot in Washington, D.C.
This week, the Democratic-led House of Representatives moved a step closer to impeaching the president. A possible impeachment adds uncertainty to the legislative outlook, particularly for the budget and USMCA. Impeachment Threatens Budget Deal, USMCA Impeachment drama stole the show...
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