Weekly Focus: Politics Driving Markets Again

Fundamental analysis of Forex market

Market Movers ahead

  • In the US, the most important release will be the jobs report for June on Friday 6 July, but the week also brings FOMC meetings minutes.
  • In the euro area, German politics will again take centre stage after ongoing squabbles within the governing coalition over migration policy.
  • US-China trade tension might escalate further after tariffs take effect on 6 July.
  • In Scandinavia, the Riksbank meeting will be the key event.
  • Note that our Weekly Focus publication will take a summer break until 10 August.

Global macro and market themes

  • Trump blinked but further escalation of the trade tensions is still our baseline scenario ahead of 6 July.
  • Merkel and Europe are facing a pivotal weekend following the EU summit.
  • Oil prices have surged to multi-year highs.
  • Confidence indicators have moderated further recently.

Full Report in PDF