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Weekly Focus: Troubles in Emerging Markets

Market Movers ahead

  • Inflation releases in the euro area and the US are in focus this week.
  • In the US, PCE core inflation continued to tick upwards to 2.0% y/y in July.
  • In the euro area, headline inflation is set to tick lower in August, while underlying inflation continues its move upward.
  • Key emerging markets Turkey, Brazil, South Africa and Russia will be in focus together with the looming trade war between China and the US.
  • There are several interesting releases in the Scandie markets, including Danish Q2 GDP, the Business Survey indicator in Sweden and unemployment data in Norway.

Global macro and market themes

  • Emerging Market (EM) sentiment has been hit not only by rising USD and rates and the trade war, but also increased sanction risk from the US.
  • The most vulnerable economies in EM at the moment are Turkey, Argentina, Russia, Brazil and South Africa.
  • Contagion to other EMs should be limited unless Brazil escalates into a crisis.
  • After failed trade talks between China-US, we expect an escalation in the trade war in early September, which could weigh further on EM sentiment.

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