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EURUSD Outlook: Break Below Daily Cloud Base Risks Deeper Pullback

The Euro stands in red during mid-European and early US trading and extends pullback through initial support at 1.1656 (base of thin daily cloud). Thursday’s close in red created bearish outside day pattern, generating initial negative signal which was confirmed with today’s break below daily cloud base. Negative action was additionally supported by south-turning 14-d momentum and slow stochastic trending lower after forming bearish divergence and emerging from overbought territory. Also, weaker than expected Eurozone inflation (2.0% in Aug vs 2.1% f/c) which supported the view of the ECB that recent spike in inflation could be short-lived, despite continuous monetary stimulus as underlying inflation is still weak. Pullback may extend lower after cloud base was lost, with end-of-week profit-taking expected to increase pressure. Fresh weakness eyes next support at 1.1616 (converged 10/55SMA, attempting to form bull-cross) and could extend towards pivotal support at 1.1568 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.1300/1.1733). Reversal above here is needed to keep larger bullish picture intact for renewed attempt at key 1.1750 resistance zone (Fibo 38.2% of 1.2476 / 1.1300 / falling 100SMA). Conversely stronger bearish signal could be expected on break and weekly close below 1.1568 pivot, which could spark further weakness towards 1.1540 (20SMA) and 1.1517 (50% retracement of 1.1300/1.1733 rally).

Res: 1.1656; 1.1681; 1.1718; 1.1733
Sup: 1.1616; 1.1568; 1.1540; 1.1517

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