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EURUSD has broken below Nov 1 low (1.13) and now the pair shows a 5 swing bearish sequence from Sept 24 high (1.1815), favoring further downside. Short term Elliott Wave view suggests that the move higher to 1.15 ended wave ((2)) in Primary degree. Internal of wave ((2)) unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Wave (W) of ((2)) ended at 1.1455, wave (X) of ((2)) ended at 1.135, and wave (Y) of ((2)) ended at 1.15.
Primary Wave ((3)) is currently in progress lower and the subdivision is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure where Intermediate wave (A) of ((3)) is in play as an impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from 1.15, Minor wave 1 ended at 1.1411 and Minor wave 2 ended at 1.1447. Minor wave 3 is further subdivided into another impulse of a lesser Minute degree. Minute Wave ((i)) of 3 ended at 1.1326, Minute wave ((ii)) of 3 ended at 1.1359, and Minute wave ((iii)) of 3 ended at 1.1214.
Near term, while rally fails below 1.15, expect pair to extend lower towards 1.111 – 1.118 area to end Intermediate wave (A) as 5 waves. Pair should then bounce in Intermediate wave (B) in 3-7-11 swing to correct cycle from Nov 7 high (1.15) before the decline resumes again. We don’t like buying the pair and prefer more downside as far as rally stays below 1.15.
EURUSD 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
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