USDTRY Outlook: Lira Weakens after Repeated Rejections at 200SMA; Higher Oil Prices and Overextended Studies add to Negative Outlook

The USDTRY ticked higher on Monday and probes through falling 10SMA (5.2644), after the downtrend was rejected above 200SMA (5.1216) for the third straight day. Lira was weaker on risk appetite after US/China tariff ceasefire agreement that pushed the dollar higher, as well as overextended daily studies which signal correction. Higher oil prices and high inflation in Turkey, despite Nov reading (21.6%) coming below expectation at 22.5%, weigh on lira. Today’s rally also cracked the upper boundary of larger bear-channel (5.2515), adding to signals of correction. Daily close above 10SMA/trendline resistance would signal correction, which needs further verification on extension above 20SMA (5.3408) and 30SMA (5.4062). Such scenario would also confirm temporary base and keep on hold attempts through 200SMA and attacks at psychological 5.00 support.

Res: 5.2850; 5.3450; 5.4062; 5.4373
Sup: 5.1360; 5.1216; 5.0854; 5.0000