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AUD/USD Outlook: Bounce After Steep Fall Needs Confirmation On Break Above Important Barriers

The Australian dollar bounced above daily cloud after Monday’s inverted Hammer candle signaled stall of steep five-day downtrend. Fresh recovery was also boosted by US/China talks hopes, with oversold daily slow stochastic adding on expectations for stronger upside action. The pair still holds below initial barriers at 0.7226/31 (Monday’s high/100SMA), break of which would ease bearish pressure and expose upper pivots at 0.7262/72 (20 /10 SMA’s). Sustained break here is needed to confirm reversal and shift focus higher. On the other side, the downside remains vulnerable as last week’s long red weekly candle which also formed weekly bearish engulfing pattern, weighs. Limited recovery under 20SMA (also near Fibo 38.2% of 0.7393/0.7177 bear-leg) would signal positioning for fresh weakness. Break of Monday’s low at 0.7177 would open pivotal supports at 0.7163 (Fibo 61.8% of 0.7020/0.7393) and 0.7139 (daily cloud base).

Res: 0.7231, 0.7262, 0.7272, 0.7311
Sup: 0.7191, 0.7177, 0.7163, 0.7139

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