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WTI Oil Outlook: Extended Triangular Consolidation Looks for Fresh Direction Signal

WTI oil stands at the back foot in early US trading on Wednesday, after recovery attempts in Asian session which peaked at $52.50, were short-lived. Tuesday’s bullish outside day pattern provided little support to oil price which stays congested within triangular consolidation for the third straight day. Converging 10SMA (currently at $50.45) and 55SMA (currently at $52.80) mark pivotal points with break of either side to provide fresh direction signal after recovery leg from $42.36 low stalled on approach to falling 55SMA. Strong pressure also comes from falling thick daily cloud (cloud base lays at $54.37) and south-heading momentum and slow stochastic. Sideways-moving RSI / MACD and mixed setup of daily MA’s offsets immediate negative signals, keeping near-term action in neutral mode, helped by symbolic draw of US crude stocks (API report on Tuesday showed 0.5 mln bls draw vs previous week’s 6.2 mln bls draw. *if you want to trade professionally use our forex robot* Focus turns on today’s release on today’s EIA report (1.3 mln bls draw f/c vs 1.6 mln bls draw previous week) which could provide fresh signals on surprise. Key fundamentals are also mixed as EIA announced increase of US oil output in 2019/20 while rising optimism on solution of US/China trade dispute and fresh measures of PBOC to stimulate economy provide positive signals. Negative scenario on break below 10SMA/current congestion low, would open way towards $49.11 (Fibo 38.2% of $42.36/$53.29 / 30SMA) and key support at $48.06 (20SMA / near 50% retracement of $42.36/$53.29). Sustained break above 55SMA and violation of daily cloud would neutralize bearish threats and signal further recovery.

Res: 52.80; 53.29; 54.37; 55.55
Sup: 51.45; 50.71; 50.45; 49.11

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