USDTRY remains neutral in the medium-term, staying trapped in a sideways range with an upper bound at 5.55 and a lower end at 5.15 since the beginning of November. Confirming the absence of a trend, the 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) are very close to each other and have flattened out.
Indeed, the RSI is close to its neutral level, though is pointing slightly higher, while the MACD is adjacent to its red trigger line – both leveling out near zero.
Potential advances in the market could encounter immediate resistance near the 200-day SMA, currently at 5.37. A bullish break could open the door for the upper bound of the range at 5.55, where another clear upside violation would turn the picture to cautiously positive, setting the stage for a test of 5.65.
On the downside, initial support to declines may be found at 5.15, which halted the pullback on January 31. A bearish break would mark a lower low on the daily chart, allowing sellers to challenge the 4.98 hurdle, marked by the top of July 12.
In brief, a decisive move either above 5.55 or below 5.15 is required to alter the neutral outlook.