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USD/TRY Outlook: Bulls Face Strong Headwinds at 200SMA Barrier and Eye CBRT Policy Meeting for Fresh Signals

The pair retests key barriers at 5.3964/77 (200SMA/Fibo 61.8% of 5.5449/5.1595) on Monday, in attempts to extend Feb’s 3.3% advance.

Daily studies are in bullish setup and supportive, however bulls face strong headwinds and may not clear barrier in first attempts.

The notion is supported by President Trump’s verbal action in attempts to lower the US currency and significant event – 6 Mar CBRT policy meeting.

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Turkish central bank is likely expected to hold ultra-high interest rates (24%) until inflation drops from current level near 20%, which could also have negative impact on pair’s near-term action.

Further hesitation at 200SMA pivot would result in fresh weakness, which could be seen as positioning while the price remains above significant supports at 5.31/30 support zone.

Sustained break above 200SMA would provide more evidence of formation of double-bottom (5.1323/5.1595) and boost recovery action off 5.1595 (2019 low) towards targets at 5.4493/5.5045 (base and top of thickening daily cloud) and 5.5413/49 (14/9 Jan highs), with possible extension towards Fibo barrier at 5.5984 (Fibo 23.6% of 7.1074/5.1323 descend). Conversely, sustained break below 5.30 supports would weaken near-term structure and signal top.

Res: 5.3977; 5.4493; 5.5045; 5.5449
Sup: 5.3636; 5.3412; 5.3247; 5.3158

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