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USD/TRY: Lira Cracks Key Obstacles and Rises to 28-Week High; CBRT Meeting in Focus

The USDTRY fell to the lowest in 6 ½ months on Tuesday, following break and close below psychological 7.00 support on Monday.

The Turkish lira remains very attractive to investors and further acceleration could be expected.

The downtrend from new record high (8.5816) cracked strong supports at 7.00/6.88 zone (psychological / top of rising weekly cloud / Fibo 61.8% of 5.8382/8.5816) with clear break lower to expose targets at 6.51/6.48 area (daily cloud base / Fibo 76.4%).

Negative daily studies are supportive, but oversold conditions and strong headwinds from cloud top / Fibo support may keep bears on hold for consolidation.

Upticks are expected to offer better opportunities to join bearish market, with initial resistance at 7.0546 (falling 10DMA) and potential stronger bounce to be capped by falling 20DMA (7.1963).

Turkish central bank meets on Thursday (Feb 18) with wide expectations for keeping interest rates on hold this time that would provide further support for lira.

Res: 7.0176; 7.0546; 7.0860; 7.1000
Sup: 6.9100; 6.8862; 6.8154; 6.6716

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