USD/CHF Starts Corrective Decrease, Dollar Facing Hurdles

Technical analysis of Forex market

Key Highlights

  • USD/CHF traded as high as 0.9375 before correcting lower.
  • There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 0.9315 on the 4-hours chart.
  • EUR/USD and GBP/USD consolidating above major support levels.
  • The US Consumer Price Index increased 1.7% in Feb 2021 (YoY), up from the last 1.4%.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

In the past few days, the US Dollar saw a steady increase above 0.9000 against the Swiss Franc. USD/CHF even cleared the 0.9200 resistance to move into a positive zone.

Looking at the 4-hours chart, the pair climbed above the 0.9300 level. It traded as high as 0.9375, and settled well above the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours).

Recently, there was a downside correction below the 0.9340 and 0.9320 support levels. There was also a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 0.9315 on the same chart.

The pair declined below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.9136 low to 0.9375 high. The first key support is near the 0.9250 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the same upward move.

Any more losses might call for a move towards the 0.9200 support zone. Conversely, the pair might face resistance near 0.9350 and 0.9375 levels if there is a fresh increase.

Fundamentally, the US Consumer Price Index for Feb 2021 was released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The market was looking for a rise of 1.7% in Feb 2021, compared with the same month a year ago.

The actual result was similar to the forecast, as the US CPI increased 1.7% (YoY). The monthly change was 0.4%, up from the last 0.3%.

Overall, the US Dollar seems to be facing resistance considering EUR/USD and GBP/USD are consolidating above major support levels. Besides, gold price also started a short-term upside correction.

Economic Releases

  • US Initial Jobless Claims – Forecast 725K, versus 745K previous.
  • ECB Interest Rate Decision – Forecast 0%, versus 0% previous.