EURUSD has nosedived below the Ichimoku cloud’s lower band at 1.1932 and is flirting now with the 50-period simple moving average (SMA) around 1.1921. The 100-period SMA, which recently curbed positive price action around 1.1990, is falling with the 200-period SMA and is together endorsing the negative picture in the pair. However, the unclear signals in directional momentum transmitted from the Ichimoku lines and the diminished downward slope of the 50-period SMA are nurturing a somewhat more sideways market.
The short-term oscillators are conveying conflicting signals in directional momentum. The MACD, above its red trigger line, is barely holding upwards of the zero threshold, while the RSI is struggling to sustain its negative bearing under the 50 level. The stochastic oscillator is holding a bearish demeanour and is assisting negative sentiment.
Decisively steering the price underneath the 50-period SMA, initial support could be found in the vicinity of 1.1868-1.1890. Should this foundation of the recent ranging market fail to keep the bears at bay, the price may challenge the three-and-a-half-month low of 1.1834. In the event sellers keep the upper hand, the pair could then sink towards the support region of 1.1787-1.1800.
If buyers re-emerge and step above the 50-period SMA at 1.1921, early upside friction could occur from the cloud’s lower band around 1.1932. Should buying interest increase, buyers may then test the ceiling of the cloud at 1.1973 before attempting to penetrate above the resistance of 1.1990. Successfully overrunning the curbing 100-period SMA, the significant resistance section of 1.2026-1.2053 will dictate whether further gains unfold.
Summarizing, EURUSD retains a neutral-to-bearish bias below the 1.2000 ceiling. A shift above 1.2100-1.2112 could reinforce confidence in the pair, while a dip below 1.1834 may hurt the euro.