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Crude Oil In Wait For OPEC+ Decisions

Early in the first full week of October, the oil market has decent expectations while waiting for the next OPEC+ meeting. Brent is trading at $79.00 and will surely very actively respond to all comments, both from the cartel itself and its members.

The basic scenario implies that the cartel may stick to its strategy of getting back 400K barrels per day to the oil market. What might seem very interesting is demand/supply estimations and the market response that will follow.

There is also a more progressive scenario, according to which the cartel may announce the market’s need for raw materials and a possibility of an oil output increase because the global oil shortage continues. However, this possibility is pretty unlikely.

In the H4 chart, after finishing another ascending impulse at 79.70, Brent is expected to continue trading within the uptrend with the target at 82.82. Possibly, today the asset may consolidate around 80.00. Later, the market may break the range to the upside and form one more ascending structure towards 80.60 or even reach the above-mentioned target at 82.82. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: its signal line is moving above 0 within the histogram area and may continue growing towards new highs.

As we can see in the H1 chart, after completing the ascending impulse at 79.70 along with the correction towards 78.00 and then finishing another ascending structure to reach 79.80, Brent is consolidating below the latter level. Possibly, the asset may break this range to the upside and form a new one around 80.00. Later, the market may break this range as well and resume trading within the uptrend with the short-term target at 81.35. After that, the instrument may correct towards 80.00 and then form one more ascending structure with the target at 82.82. From the technical point of view, this idea is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: its signal line is falling to rebound from 20 and then start another growth towards 80.