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Central banks news

ECB Upgrades GDP Growth and Inflation Forecasts, Refrains from Talking about Taper

The ECB meeting contains little surprise. On economic developments, despite the notion that recent rise in inflation has been driven by temporary factors, the staff upgraded headline inflation projections sharply for this year and 2022. All monetary policy measures stay ...
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BOC Drew Attention to Rise in Core Inflation

BOC remained positive about the economic outlook despite recent softer data. The members viewed that weakness in the job market was temporary. Meanwhile, they were more attentive to the rise in core inflation. We believe the plan of QE tapering ...
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ECB Preview – Extending Current Pace of PEPP Purchases for 3 More Months

The focus of this week’s ECB meeting is the outlook of PEPP purchases in the second half of the year. Although the Eurozone’s economy has improved, while the vaccination progress has accelerated, since the last meeting, we expect policymakers to ...
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BOC Preview – Policymakers to Keep Upbeat Tone Despite Softening Growth

We expect the BOC to maintain its relatively hawkish outlook at this week’s meeting. Although economic data released since April have softened slightly, strong oil prices and the positive vaccination progress should allow the members to stay optimistic about the ...
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RBA Affirmed that Adjustments to YCC and QE would be Announced in July

As expected, the RBA left all monetary policy measures unchanged in June. Policymakers maintained a dovish tone, suggesting no rate hike at least until 2024. They also affirmed that some adjustments to the monetary policy would be made in July ...
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RBA Preview: RBA to Assess Economic Data and Prepare for Policy Tweak in July

The June RBA meeting will have little surprise, as the central bank has already planned to adjust yield curve control (YCC) and QE measures in July. This week, policymakers will discuss recent economic data and the economic impacts of the ...
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Kiwi Rallies as RBNZ Suggests that Rate Hike can Come in as Soon as Next Year

The RBNZ delivered a less dovish message in May than a month ago. While leaving all monetary policy measures unchanged, it upgraded the inflation forecast and revised lower the unemployment rate. The central bank also pushed forward the first rate ...
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RBNZ Preview: Upgrading Economic Assessments to Reflect Stronger-than-Expected Recovery

Economic data released since the last meeting have continued to improve. We expect the RBNZ to upgrade economic assessments at the upcoming meeting, acknowledging recent positive developments. Yet, policymakers would continue to attribute the spike in inflation to temporary factors ...
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FOMC Minutes Revealed that Some Members Raised Discussion over QE Tapering

The minutes for the FOMC meeting in April revealed that policymakers discussed about QE tapering. This came in as a surprise to the market, sending USD higher and Treasury lower. Both the policy statement and the press conference of the ...
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RBA Minutes Reaffirmed Likelihood of QE Expansion in July

The RBA minutes for the May minutes reaffirmed our view that further expansion in the asset purchase program would be announced later this year. The most likely timing for the announcement would be July. Domestically, the members noted that the ...
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BOE Predicts Economy to Expand at Strongest Pace since WWII; Announces QE Tapering from this Month

At today’s meeting, the BOE voted unanimously to leave the Bank rate unchanged at a record low of 0.1%. Meanwhile, the central bank voted 8-1 to keep the asset purchase program at 895B pound, of which 875B pound is government ...
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BOE Preview: Economic Forecasts to be Upgraded, while QE Tapering to Begin in August

At the upcoming BOE meeting, we expect policymakers to vote unanimously to keep the Bank rate unchanged at 0.1%. They would also continue to buy up to 875B pound of UK government bonds and 20B pound of corporate debts. The ...
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RBA Keeps Policy Intact but Signals Amendments in July

The RBA left all monetary policy measures unchanged in May and reiterated that a rate hike would “unlikely to be until 2024 at the earliest”. However, the central bank upgraded economic projections and signaled that some amendments would be made ...
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RBA Preview: Upgrading Economic Assessment while Pledging to Expand QE Purchases

While the RBA is likely to leave all monetary policy measures unchanged at this week’s meeting, the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (due May 7) would be closely watched. We expect policymakers to upgrade economic assessments moderately and pledge to ...
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Fed Refrained from Giving Any Hint about QE Tapering

The Fed voted unanimously to leave the Fed funds rate target at 0-0.25%. It also decided to keep the asset purchases at US$120B per month. As expected, the Fed upgraded the economic assessments but continued to warn of downside risks ...
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BOJ Downgrades Inflation Forecasts Significantly as It Struggles with Limited Tools

The BOJ left its monetary policy measures unchanged in April. However, it revised sharply lower the inflation forecasts for this fiscal year. The country’s economy has been far below the +2% inflation despite a decade’s unconventional easing measures. On the ...
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FOMC Preview – Fed to Deliver Upbeat Message about Economy while Affirming Substantial Progress is Needed to Taper QE

We expect the Fed to turn more upbeat over the economic outlook at this week’s meeting. Yet, the economic improvement is not yet strong enough for any change in the monetary policy measures. As such, the Fed would leave the ...
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ECB Expects Growth to Resume in 2Q21. Yet, PEPP Tapering is Still Premature

As we have anticipated, the ECB left all monetary policy measures unchanged in April. Policymakers indicated the current pace (increased since March) of asset purchases in the PEPP would remain intact. Other monetary policy measures will stay unchanged with the ...
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BOC Tapers QE Program and Delivers Upbeat Economic Outlook

As we have expected, the BOC delivered a hawkish tapering of QE purchases in April. the weekly asset purchases will reduce to CAD3B/week, from CAD4B/week previously. Meanwhile, it also upgraded the economic assessments for both the country and the world ...
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ECB Preview – Looking for Hints on PEPP Destiny

We do not expect much news from the upcoming ECB meeting. European yields have stabilized since the central bank “accelerated significantly” the pace of PEPP purchases in mid-March. Inter-meeting economic data have been mixed. We believe policymakers would reinstate that ...
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