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Central banks news

RBNZ to Leave Expansionary Policy Unchanged as Growth Momentum Eases

Economic developments have been mixed since the February RBNZ meeting. Inter-meeting data show deceleration in the growth momentum, while inflation expectations have soared. Government’s measures to curb property prices would be another factors easing the growth outlook, while the Trans-Tasman ...
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ECB’s Minutes Revealed that Upside from US’ Fiscal Stimulus Not Yet Reflected in March Forecasts

ECB’s minutes for the March meeting have lent support to EURUSD. The minutes revealed that policymakers saw upside risks to the economic outlook, thanks to US’ huge fiscal stimulus. Meanwhile, despite higher inflation in the near-term, it should remain subdued ...
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Fed Upbeat on Recovery, while Pledged to Maintain Stimulus Until Substantial Progress is Seen On Economy

The FOMC minutes for the March meeting revealed that members turned more optimistic over the economic outlook. They were more hopeful of continuous improvement in light of the “significant declines in the number of new [coronavirus] cases, hospitalizations, and deaths ...
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RBA Hints to Expand QE In Order to Boost Job and Inflation

The RBA left all its monetary policy measures unchanged in April. The cash rate target stays at 0.1%. correspondingly, the 3-year Australian Government Bond yield target (yield curve control) and the Term Funding Facility (TFF) interest rate also remain at ...
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SNB Appears Less Concerned about Franc’s Strength, Raises Inflation Forecasts

The SNB left all its monetary policy measures unchanged. It kept the policy rate and interest on sight deposits at −0.75% and pledged to continue intervening the FX market if necessary. While leaving the growth outlook intact, the central bank ...
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BOE Voted Unanimously to Keep Bank Rate and QE Unchanged. Warned of Uncertain Outlook Despite Upbeat Data

The BOE voted 9-0 to leave the Bank rate unchanged at 0.1%. It will also continue to buy up to 875B pound of UK government bonds and 20B pound of corporate debts. While cautioning that the economic outlook remained highly ...
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BOE Voted Unanimously to Keep Bank Rate and QE Unchanged. Warned of Uncertain Outlook Despite Upbeat Data

The BOE voted 9-0 to leave the Bank rate unchanged at 0.1%. It will also continue to buy up to 875B pound of UK government bonds and 20B pound of corporate debts. While cautioning that the economic outlook remained highly ...
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FOMC Review – Fed Revised Economic Projections Significantly Higher, while Pledged to Keep QE Size Unchanged Until Actual Progress is Seen in Economy

The staff significantly upgraded economic projections. While the policy rate will unlikely change before 2024, the median dot plot reveals that more members are now projecting rate hikes in coming two years. As widely anticipated, the Fed left all monetary ...
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FOMC Review – Fed Revised Economic Projections Significantly Higher, while Pledged to Keep QE Size Unchanged Until Actual Progress is Seen in Economy

The staff significantly upgraded economic projections. While the policy rate will unlikely change before 2024, the median dot plot reveals that more members are now projecting rate hikes in coming two years. As widely anticipated, the Fed left all monetary ...
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BOE Preview – Response to Rising Yields in Focus

We expect BOE to vote 9-0 to leave the Bank rate unchanged at 0.1%. Meanwhile, the QE program will also stay at 875B pound worth of government bonds, and 20B pound of corporate debt. Despite contraction in the first quarter, ...
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FOMC Preview – Expect to See Upgrade in GDP Growth Projections

The focus of this week’s FOMC meeting is how the Fed would respond to the rising Treasury yields and the rapid improvement in the economic conditions. We expect policymakers to upgrade the GDP growth forecasts and attribute rising yields to ...
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ECB to Accelerate Asset Purchase as Rising Bond Yields Tighten Market

While leaving the monetary policy measures unchanged, the ECB indicated that it would increase asset purchases in coming months. The move is a response to the rise of bond yields which could tighten the financial conditions. On economic developments, the ...
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BOC More Upbeat on Economy, Hinted to Taper as Outlook Continues to Improve

As widely anticipated, the BOC left all monetary policy measures unchanged. While being more upbeat about the economic developments, the members noted that the policy rate will stay unchanged as least until inflation target of 2% is “sustainably” achieved. Meanwhile, ...
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ECB Preview – Awaiting Actions in Response to Higher Yield and Revisions on Economic Forecasts

Macroeconomic developments have changed significantly since the January ECB meeting. One of the most prominent developments is the rise in inflation expectations and bond yields. As the ECB has pledged to maintain a accommodative monetary policy, it would be of ...
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BOC Preview: Caution over Pandemic Uncertainty while acknowledging Better-than-Projected Growth

The BOC will leave its policy rate and the size of the QE program unchanged at this week’s meeting. While there will be no press conference and updated economic projections will not be released until April, policymakers will address the ...
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RBA Review – QE Might Increase Further to Curb Rising Yields and Exchange Rate

As widely anticipated, the RBA left all monetary policy measures unchanged. As a summary, the cash rate target, the 3-year Australian Government Bond ‘Yield Curve Control’ (YCC) target and the Term Funding Facility (TFF) interest rate all stay at 0.1% ...
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RBA Preview – Assessing Impacts of Rising Yields on Economy after Unexpected Increase in Bond Buying

At tomorrow’s meeting, the RBA should leave all monetary measures unchanged. The cash rate, 3-year yield target and the rate on the TFF program will stay unchanged at 0.1%. The QE program will likely remain intact as the central bank ...
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RBNZ Upgraded Economic Forecasts, NZD Shot Higher

The RBNZ delivered a more upbeat statement at today meeting. While leaving the monetary policy measures unchanged and warned of the uneven economic recovery, the staff upgraded the economic projections significantly. Policymakers also introduced a new forward guidance which suggests ...
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Fed Powell Cautioned about Uneven Recovery, Pledged to Maintain Stimulus

At the testimony before the Senate, Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautioned that the economic recovery is uneven. He pledged to maintain sufficient support to achieving the employment and inflation targets. Concerning economic developments, Powell refrained from sending a too optimistic ...
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RBNZ Preview – Policymakers to Sound Less Dovish with Yields and NZD Strengthened

We expect the RBNZ to deliver a less dovish message in the upcoming meeting. Economic data released since the November meeting have been encouraging, with the price level and the job market on track to reach the target. These should ...
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Fed Cautiously Optimistic about Recovery with Fiscal Support. USD Upside Limited as Accommodative Policy Remains in Place

The FOMC minutes for the January meeting revealed that policymakers were cautiously optimistic over the economic outlook. Meanwhile, it also dampened hopes of tapering. US dollar’s rebound has been driven by more upbeat economic data and rising yields. However, the ...
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BOE Upbeat about Inflation Outlook. Negative Rate Seems Unlikely although It is Not Ruled Out

As expected, BOE left the Bank rate unchanged at 0.1%. Meanwhile, the QE program also remains at 875B pound worth of government bonds, and 20B pound of corporate debt. The economic projections reveal that policymakers are more optimistic about inflation ...
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RBA Extends Asset Purchases of AUD 100B Until September

RBA announced to extend the asset purchase program by an additional AUD100B as the current program ends in mid- April. Meanwhile, it has turned more upbeat about the global and domestic economic outlook, and upgraded GDP and employment forecasts. RBA ...
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BOE Preview – Awaiting Updates on Negative Rate Policy and Economic Projections

There are several things to watch for this week’s BOE meeting: 1) updates on the review of negative interest rate; 2) adjustment to QE; 3) economic projections. All policy measures will stay unchanged this week with the Bank rate unchanged ...
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RBA to Leave Policy Unchanged and Remain Cautious about Outlook Despite Recovery

The RBA will have its first meeting this year on Tuesday, followed by publication of the statement of monetary policy on Thursday. We expect all policy measures to stay unchanged this month. Policymakers could revise GDP forecast higher and the ...
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Fed Indicated that QE Tapering is Premature and Bar to Adjust Policy is High

The December FOMC meeting contained little news. However, Chair Powell sent a clear indication that tapering is “premature” for the time being and that the bar to adjust the monetary policy is higher. The Fed left all measures unchanged at ...
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FOMC Preview – Cautious about Economic Weakness but Fiscal Stimulus should lend Support

The FOMC meeting in the coming week will not bring any change in the monetary policy. Economic activities have moderated since the December meeting, while resurgence in the coronavirus cases could hurt economic activities more seriously than previously expected. Yet, ...
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ECB Gets Slightly More Hawkish, Revealing that it might Not Use All of PEPP Envelope

The ECB left its powder dry in January. While continuing to warn of the downside risks on the Eurozone and global economy, the central bank delivered a hawkish tweak about operation of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP). On the ...
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BOJ Downgraded Economic Outlook for FY2020, Inflation to Fare Better During Forecasting Horizon

The January BOJ is non-eventful. Cautioning that risks to the economic outlook is tilted to the downside, the central bank announced to leave all its stimulus measures unchanged. In contrast to speculations, the central bank did not adjust the implicit ...
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ECB Preview – Awaiting More Comments of Strong Euro

While ECB would likely leave its monetary policy measures unchanged this week, the market should focus on several issues: members’ view on recent euro strength, discussions on QE tapering and economic impacts of renewed lockdown. Following the recalibration in December, ...
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BOC Preview – All Eyes on Likelihood of Micro Rate Cut

BOC is widely expected to leave its overnight rate at the effective lower bound of 0.25% in January. The size of asset purchases will also stay unchanged at CAD4B/week. Over the past month, there has been market speculations about the ...
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BOE Stays Put as Deadline of Brexit Talk Approaches

BOE left the Bank rate unchanged at 0.1% and the asset purchase program at 875B pound. The central bank remained cautious about the “unusually uncertain” economic outlook and pledged to take “whatever additional action is necessary” if the outlook for ...
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Fed Pledged to Continue QE Until “Substantial Progress” Seen in Employment and Inflation

The major changes in the December were forward guidance in the asset purchase program (QE) as well as upgrades in economic forecasts. The Fed left the policy rate unchanged at 0-0.25% and asset purchases at US$120B per month. The updated ...
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BOE Preview – Staying Cautious about Brexit Outlook

For QE expansion at the last meeting, we expect the BOE will keep its powder dry this month. BOE should leave the Bank rate unchanged at 0.1%, and the size of asset purchases (QE) at 875 pound. There have been ...
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FOMC Preview – Fed to Update Forward Guidance on QE

At the last meeting of the year, we expect the Fed to be more cautious about the near-term outlook, while more optimistic over the longer-term. The focus of the meeting will be on the adjustment of the forward guidance about ...
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ECB Extends PEPP, APP and TLTROs to At Leaset Until Mid-2022

As promised, the ECB “recalibrated” the existing monetary policy measures at the December meeting. The aim is to ensure that the current level of stimulus remains in presence through to 2020. On the economic projections, the staff revised lower the ...
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BOC Upbeat about Vaccine but Remained Cautious about Slow Global Recovery

As widely anticipated, BOC left all its monetary policy measures unchanged. Policymakers acknowledged the economic recovery since the last meeting. Yet they cautioned about the resurgence in coronavirus cases and the potential impacts on related restrictions on the economic outlook ...
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BOC Preview: Keeping Powder Dry While Reiterating Stimulus will Last For Years

After the adjustment in asset purchases in October, we expect BOC to keep the powder dry this week, at its last meeting in the year. Policymakers will caution about the rising number of coronavirus cases and economic impacts of tighter ...
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ECB Preview – Policy Recalibration to Focus on PEPP and TLTRO

Given the strong hint in the October meeting, the ECB is prone to add monetary easing measures at Thursday’s meeting. We expect to see increase in the size of PEPP and adjustment of TLTRO. As the policy rates have been ...
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RBA Remains Cautiously Optimistic with Better-than-Expected Recovery, Pledged to Do More if Needed

As widely expected RBA left all the monetary policy measures unchanged in December. While acknowledging the “better-than-expected” economic recovery, the members reiterated that the outlook remains dependent on policy support. On economic developments, the central bank noted that “the economic ...
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RBA Preview: Cautiously Optimistic over Recovery; QE Expected to Increase Further in 2021

After some big moves in November, we believe the RBA will stay put at this week’s meeting. Given the good news about vaccine and the steady decline in the country’s coronavirus cases and, we do not feel surprise if the ...
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FOMC Minutes: Fed Seriously Considered Adjusting QE

The minutes for the FOMC meeting in November shows that policymakers were cautiously optimistic about the economic recovery and the impacts of the monetary policy tools on the economic outlook. As negative interest rate has been ruled out, the Fed’s ...
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RBA Minutes Affirm that Future Monetary Policy will Rely on QE

The RBA minutes for the November contained little news. After cutting the policy to a new low of 0.1%, policymakers suggested the policy tool in the future will mainly be asset purchases. While the members remained reluctant to lower interest ...
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Chance of Negative OCR Reduces as RBNZ More Confident About Economic Outlook

RBNZ announced that a Funding for Lending Program (FLP) will be implemented in “early December” with an initial size of about NZD 28B. Further details will be announced in coming weeks. The program aims at providing loans to commercial banks ...
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RBNZ Preview – Introducing New Lending Program with Dovish Tone Maintained

The focus of this week’s RBNZ meeting is on details of the Funding for Lending (FLP) program. We expect this program would be implemented before the end of the year and would be the key policy tool of the central ...
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Fed Discussed Options to Adjust QE, More Details Probably Out Next Month

As widely anticipated, the Fed left the policy rate unchanged at 0-0.25% and asset purchases at US$120B per month. The decisions were made unanimously. The members acknowledged that economic recovery remained under way. Yet, they warned of the downside risks ...
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BOE’s QE Expansion Exceeds Expectations as Economy Heads for Double Dip

While leaving the Bank rate unchanged at 0.1%, BOE raised the size of asset purchases (QE) by +135B pound to 875 pound. Both decisions were made unanimously. The expansion came in larger than we had anticipated. The staff also revised ...
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FOMC Preview – Fed to Discuss Asset Purchases Arrangement as Balance Sheet Surpasses US$ 7 Trillion

We do not expect any change in the monetary policy at the November meeting. That is, the Fed should leave the policy rate unchanged at 0-0.25% and the asset purchases program unchanged at US$120B/month. The central bank will maintain a ...
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RBA Cuts Rates and Increases QE Purchases for at Least 6 More Months

As expected, RBA announced further monetary easing at today’s meeting. RBA cut the cash rate to 0.1%, from 0.25% previously. Similarly, the target for the yield on the 3-year government bond yield and the interest rate on new drawings under ...
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BOE Preview – Expanding QE Size while Keeping Rate Unchanged at Record Low

At the meeting this week, we expect BOE to increase the size of asset purchases (QE), by 100B pound, to 845B pound. The Bank rate will stay unchanged at 0.1%. Economic data released since the last meeting suggest that the ...
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RBA Preview – Expecting New Easing Package of Rate Cuts and QE Expansion

It is widely anticipated that RBA will announce more easing measures at this week’s meeting. The package of measures will likely include a rate cut to 0.1% and expansion of the yield curve control program with the focus on 5-10 ...
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ECB Expects “Very Negative” Data in November, Pledges to Recalibrate Measures to Downturn

ECB has announced to leave all its monetary policy measures unchanged. The deposit rate stays at -0.5%, while the main refi rate and the marginal lending rate also remain unchanged at 0% and 0.25% respectively. The PEPP program will continue ...
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BOC Recalibrated QE with Focus on Long-term Bonds. Downgraded Growth for 2021

BOC left the policy rate unchanged at 0.25% in October. The central bank explicitly noted that the policy rate will stay unchanged at least until 2023. Meanwhile, it announced to “recalibrate” the QE program, reducing weekly purchases “gradually” to at ...
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ECB Preview – More Stimulus to Come in December as Recovery Loses Momentum

Economic data released since the September signaled that the recovery might have lost momentum. This is a worrying signs as renewed lockdown measures in light of the second wave are expected to damage the recovery further. As a preparatory meeting ...
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BOC Preview – Staying Cautious about the Uneven Recovery

BOC will likely leave the policy rate unchanged at 0.25% next week’s meeting. After surprising unwinding of some operations last week, the rest of easing measures put in place since March should remain unchanged. Inter-meeting data flow shows that economic ...
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RBA Minutes Reveal Strong Conviction to Further Easing in November

RBA’s minutes for the October meeting offered more supports that further easing will be rolled out soon. Potential measures include rate cuts and asset purchases. The bottom line is that the policy rate will not go negative. Assistant Governor Christopher ...
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ECB Minutes Tilted to Dovish Side

The message sent from the ECB minutes came in more dovish that the meeting statement released a few weeks ago. Policymakers were concerned about the inflation outlook more than previously expected. Despite upward revisions to the economic projections, the members ...
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FOMC Minutes Reveal that Upgrade on Economy Greatly Hinged on More Fiscal Stimulus

The minutes for the September FOMC meeting reveals that the members generally agreed to adopt the new monetary policy framework and change the forward guidance in the way presented in the statement. While the economic projections were upgraded in the ...
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RBA Left Rates Unchanged at 0.25%. Hinted to Add Stimulus to Support Job Market

As widely anticipated, RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 0.25% at the October meeting. The yield curve control target also stays at 0.25%. This is the 7th consecutive month that the central bank has kept the monetary policy unchanged ...
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RBA Preview: Preparing the Market for Rate Cut and QE Expansion

RBA will likely use the opportunity of the upcoming meeting to prepare the market for more monetary easing in November. The stimulus measures due later this week should include reduction in the cash rate, yield curve control (YCC) target and ...
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CFTC Commitments of Traders – NET SHORT in USD Index Futures could Trim Next Week on Strong Rebound in Greenback

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended September 22, NET SHORT for USD Index futures increased -906 to 9 146 contracts. Speculative long positions dropped -1 424 contracts and short positions slipped -518 contracts ...
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SNB Expects Deflation to Stay Until 2Q21. Pledged to Intervene Exchange Rate as CHF Remains Highly Valued

As widely anticipated, SNB left the policy rate unchanged at -0.75%. It reiterated the view that Swiss franc remained “highly valued” and the commitment to intervene in the FX market. The central bank will publish data on money and foreign ...
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RBNZ Hints to Add Alternative Easing in Coming Months

As widely anticipated, RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 0.25% today. The cap of Large Scale Asset Purchase (LSAP) program, a.k.a. QE, also stays at NZD 100B. Meanwhile, the central bank reiterated the forward guidance that the OCR will be ...
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SNB Preview : FX Intervention the Key Monetary Policy Tool to Curb CHF’s Strength

We expect SNB to leave the policy rate unchanged at -0.75%. While it does not rule out the possibility of further rate cut, the central bank’s main tool is FX intervention to curb excessive strength in Swiss franc. Economic contraction ...
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RBNZ Preview – Waiting for More Hints on Negative Rate

After a big move in August, the RBNZ will likely leave the OCR unchanged at 0.25% and the cap of Large Scale Asset Purchase (LSAP) unchanged at NZD 100B. It is, however, expected to offer more indication on the alternative ...
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BOE Voted 9-0 to Keep Policy Unchanged. Signaled to Discuss with Regulator about Negative Rate Implementation

BOE voted unanimously to leave the Bank rate unchanged at 0.1%. The asset purchase program also stayed at 745B pound in September. At the meeting, policymakers acknowledged stronger-than-expected recovery in the UK. Yet, they reiterated that the outlook remained highly ...
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Fed Shifted to Outcome-Based Forward Guidance, Upgraded Economic Projections

The Fed left the policy rate unchanged at 0-0.25% and the asset purchases program unchanged in September. There are substantial changes in the policy statement, reflecting the formal adoption of average inflation targeting. Updated economic projections revealed a more optimistic ...
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AUD Strengthened on Upbeat Chinese Data, RBA Minutes Contained Little News

RBA minutes for the September meeting contained little new information. The members highlighted uncertainty of the economic outlook with lockdowns in Victoria would likely derail Australia’s recovery. Australian dollar is climbing higher at the time of writing this report. However, ...
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BOE Preview – BOE to Signal More Easing on Weak Recovery and Brexit Uncertainty

Renewed uncertainty of Brexit talks, sharp selloff of sterling last week and increased speculations of further rate hike have made this week’s BOE meeting a closely-watched one. While the central bank is expected to leave the policy rate and QE ...
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FOMC Preview – Policy Incorporating Average Inflation Targeting. New Economic Forecasts and Dot Plots Awaited

After announcing to adopt a new monetary policy framework at Jackson Hole symposium weeks ago, the focus of the upcoming FOMC meeting is on the more clarification of average inflation targeting, the members’ view on the economic outlook (to be ...
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ECB Upbeat about Recovery, Resorted to Verbal Warning of Strong Euro

ECB left all the monetary policy measures unchanged in September. The staff upgraded the near-term growth outlook, as well as core inflation forecasts for 2021 and 2022, suggesting the central bank’s optimism over the recovery. Policymakers continued to stress that ...
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BOC Left Policy Rate and QE Unchanged, Pledged to Calibrate Measures when Needed

BOC announced to leave the policy rate at the effective lower bound of 0.25% and maintain the pace of asset purchases at CAD 5B/week of Canadian government bonds. While acknowledging that economic activities have rebounded more than expected since the ...
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ECB Preview – Warning about Euro Strength with No Action Needed

ECB is expected to maintain the monetary policy measures in September. The focuses on the meeting include policymakers’ response to the recent strength in euro, the updated economic projections and ECB’s strategy review after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s announcement at ...
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RBA Delivered a Mildly Dovish Tone as it Extended TFF and Hinted Further Easing

As widely anticipated, RBA left the cash rate and the 3-year bond yield target unchanged at record of 0.25% at today’s meeting. Yet, the decision to expand the size of Term Funding Facility (TFF) and the tone in the accompanying ...
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RBA Preview – Keeping Expansionary Policy Stance with Focus on 3-Year Yield

We expect RBA would leave the monetary policy unchanged in September. Since March, RBA has been adopting a number of measures to lower the borrowing costs and provide liquidity to the market. These include keeping the cash rate at record ...
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Powell Announced Dovish Shift to Fed’s Monetary Policy, Targeting Averaging Inflation and shortfall of Maximum Employment

At the annual Jackson Hole Symposium, Fed Chair Powell briefed the market on the results of the Fed’s strategic review of its monetary policy strategy. Powell announced the new approach to deal with price stability and maximum employment, the dual ...
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Fiscal Stalemate to Lead to More Fed Stimulus and Further USD Weakness

We expect US dollar’s downtrend to resume downtrend in coming months after consolidation. Fiscal stalemate suggests that the Fed would shoulder more burdens in delivering stimulus. This should lead yields to decline further, supporting weakness in the greenback. Stalled Hopes ...
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FOMC Minutes Revealed Rigorous Debate over Alternative Monetary Policy Tools

The FOMC minutes for the July meeting revealed that the members remained concerned about the outlook of economic recovery. They had discussed a number of tools for further easing, including forward guidance, asset purchases, and yield curve targets. Meanwhile, the ...
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AUDNZD’s Rally on Yield Differential Looks Overextended

Recent strength in Australian dollar has sent AUDNZD to the highest level in 2 years. Notwithstanding the second wave of coronavirus outbreak, and the renewed lockdown measures, in Victoria, Aussie has remained firm. While all major currencies have appreciated in ...
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RBNZ Preview: Expect QE Size Expansion and More Discussion on Negative Rates

We expect RBNZ to leave the OCR unchanged at 0.25% this week. It will likely increase the size of the Large-Scale Asset Purchase (LSAP) Program (QE) to NZD 80-90B from the current NZD 60B. The accompanying statement would contain a ...
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RBA Cautioned over Uneven and Bumpy Recovery amidst Second Wave of Outbreak. Maintained All Easing Measures

At the July meeting, RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 0.25% and maintained yield curve targeting for 3-year bonds at 0.25%. While acknowledging that economic contraction has been less severe than previously anticipated, policymakers left economic forecasts largely intact ...
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BOE Preview – Expecting More Hint on Lowering ELB while Near-Term Outlook Might be Upgraded

BOE is widely anticipated to leave the Bank rate unchanged at record low of 0.1% this week. The asset purchase program (QE) will also be maintained at 745B pound. Of most interest in the meeting are the updated economic assessments, ...
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RBA to Caution about Economic Impacts of Renewed Lockdown, Relying on Fiscal Policy for Stimulus

RBA will most likely leave all of its monetary policy measures unchanged in August.The cash rate will stay on hold at 0.25%, the yield curve control program remains targeting 3-year government bonds at 0.25% and the Term Funding Facility will ...
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Dovish Fed Warned that Recovery Path Dependent on Virus, Pledged to Add More Stimulus when Needed

The Fed sent a more dovish message at the July meeting, although the monetary policy, as well as the accompanying statement, stayed largely unchanged. Despite improvement of data flow, the members warned that the pace of recovery is depending on ...
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FOMC Preview – Preparing for Changes in Monetary Policy

The upcoming FOMC meeting aims at preparing the market for changes in the monetary policy in September. At the meeting this week, the Fed will keep its policy measures unchanged at this week’s meeting, i.e., the Fed funds rate will ...
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RBA Minutes: Risks to Recovery Skewed to Downside as July Meeting Had No Discussion about Impacts of Melbourne’s Lockdown

The minutes for RBA’s July meeting affirmed that policymakers should leave the current monetary measures steady for a prolonged period of time. Policymakers at the July meeting did not discuss about the surge in new coronavirus cases in Melbourne and ...
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ECB: Lagarde Reiterated to Use All EUR 1.35 trillion of Emergency Purchases to Lift Inflation

ECB at the July meeting maintained all the monetary policy measures unchanged. President Christine Lagarde acknowledged the encouraging economic recovery in May and June. She also suggested that the rebound will continue into 3Q20, as supported by monetary and fiscal ...
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BOC Pledges to Continue with Easing Until Inflation Returned to +2% Sustainably.

As widely anticipated, BOC maintained both the policy rate and all the asset purchases programs unchanged at the July meeting. While acknowledged positive economic developments since the last meeting, policymakers cautioned that the economy’s recuperation will be slow and pledged ...
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ECB Preview – Sounding Cautiously Optimistic on Economic Recovery

After the big move in June, ECB is likely to keep its powder this month. At this week’s meeting, we expect the central bank to acknowledge the improvement in economic activities, mainly driven by consumption. However, the members will remain ...
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BOC to Turn More Upbeat about Economic Recovery, While Caution about Uncertainty and Keep Monetary Policy Unchanged.

At the BOC meeting this week, we expect new Governor Tiff Macklem to continue Stephen Poloz’s legacy and leave the policy rate unchanged at 0.25%, the effective lower bound. The asset purchases programs (QE) will also be maintained. Canada’s reopening ...
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BOJ Preview: Maintaining Negative Rates and QE, while Downgrading Economic Forecasts

While we expect BOJ to maintain all of its monetary policy measures unchanged, the central bank would likely downgrade the economic forecasts for FY2020. BOJ’s Tankan survey revealed that companies of all sectors were worse off in 2Q20, sending the ...
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RBA Left Monetary Policy Unchanged. Second Wave in Outbreak Signals Huge Downside Risks

As widely anticipated, RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 0.25%. It also maintained yield curve control, targeting 3-year government bond yield at 0.25%. While the members were more upbeat about the near-term recovery, they remained cautious about the longer-term ...
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FOMC Minutes: Changes in Forward Guidance and Asset Purchases could Come in September

The FOMC minutes for the June meeting revealed that the members had rigorous discussion about forward guidance, asset purchases and yield curve caps/targets. We expect the framework review will be completed this month, allowing the Fed to announce changes in ...
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RBNZ Pledged to Expand QE and other Stimulus if Needed, as Risk to Outlook Skewed to Downside

As widely anticipated, RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 0.25%. The size of QE also stays unchanged at NZD60B. Policymakers acknowledged that the spread ofcoronavirus is under control in the country for now. They also saw reasons for being more ...
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RBNZ Preview: Cautiously Optimistic about Recovery while Pledges to Do More if Needed

RBNZ is likely to leave the OCR unchanged record low of 0.25% in June. Meanwhile, the size of the LSAP program (QE) will also stay at NZD 60B. Control of the coronavirus pandemic in the country has been more effective ...
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BOE Expands QE Size, but Slows Pace of Purchases

BOE turned out to be less pessimistic than we had anticipated. The members acknowledged that global economic contraction in 2Q20 will be “less severe than expected”. While the size of QE is expanded, the members will likely slow the pace ...
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SNB Intervened Aggressively to Weaken Franc and Pledged to Continue So

SNB left the monetary policy unchanged in June. Meanwhile, the members reiterated the commitment to intervene in the currency market as Swiss franc has remained “highly valued”. Economic and inflation forecasts for this year were sharply downgraded as a result ...
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BOE to Expand QE and Discuss Negative Rates

Although there are signs that the coronavirus outbreak in the UK is stabilizing, its economic impact has just been emerged. Record contraction in GDP, sharp slowdown in inflation and weak employment indicators suggest that the BOE would have to maintain ...
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FOMC Signals to Increase Asset Purchases in Coming Months

As expected, FOMC left its monetary policy measures unchanged and downgraded the macroeconomic outlook. The members also project that the policy rate will stay unchanged through 2020. The accompanying statement showed few changes. Yet, the pledge to increase purchases by ...
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FOMC Preview – Standing Ready to Add Stimulus Despite Signs of Recovery

While we do not expect any change in monetary policy at the June FOMC meeting, there are a number of things that should be watched for. Chair Jerome Powell will discuss the economic outlook and the monetary policy stance at ...
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ECB Expands and Extends PEPP, after Sharply Downgrading Inflation

ECB’s increase in stimulus was slightly more than we had anticipated. The move was mainly driven by the sharp downgrade in inflation outlook. The decision has sent a strong message to the market that the central bank is “undeterred” by ...
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BOC Turns More Optimistic About Economy, Scales Back Term Financing

Turning more optimistic on the economic outlook, BOC scaled back some term financing facilities, while leaving the policy rate and QE programs unchanged. Policymakers suggested that the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic have peaked, despite ongoing uncertainties. The members have ...
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ECB Preview – Lagarde to Expand PEPP and Sharply Downgrade GDP and Inflation Forecasts

We expect ECB to add more stimuli and downgrade it macroeconomic projections at the upcoming meeting. It is likely that the more flexible PEPP will be expanded and extended. Previous meetings suggest that the members are reluctant to lower the ...
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New BOC Governor to Carry On Legacy, Keeping Rate and QE Intact

The upcoming BOC meeting (June 3) will be the first one headed by incoming Governor Tiff Macklem. We expect him to leave the policy rate unchanged at 0.25%. The unconventional monetary policy, i.e.: QE, will also remain the same. Given ...
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RBA to Send More Upbeat Economic Assessment in June

We expect RBA to leave its monetary policy measures unchanged in June. Governor Philip Lowe appeared cautiously optimistic about domestic economic outlook. We expect the central bank will deliver a more upbeat economic outlook while pledge to leave the policy ...
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FOMC Minutes Sent Dovish Message about Recovery, Preparing to Adjust QE and Forward Guidance

The FOMC minutes for the April meeting revealed that the members were very much concerned about the job market and inflation outlook as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. While leaving the Fed funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25%, the members ...
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RBNZ to Maintain Dovish Tone in May, Preparing for QE Expansion

We expect RBNZ to leave its OCR at 0.25% at the May meeting. However, given the prospect of very gradual economic recovery, policymakers would maintain a dovish tone and suggest that further stimulus measures are likely. QE expansion is a ...
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RBA Forecasts Double-Digit Contraction and Unemployment in First Half of the Year

As revealed in the latest Statement of Monetary Policy (SMP), RBA sharply cut economic forecasts for this year. GDP is projected to record double-digit contraction in the first half of the year before recovery in 2021. The unemployment rate could ...
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