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Central banks news

BOE Downgraded Short-Term Growth, but Turned Slightly More Hawkish about Tightening

The BOE voted 9-0 to leave the Bank rate at 0.1% at the September meeting. The members voted 7-2 to keep the QE program at 895B pound. Deputy governor Dave Ramsden and external member Michael Saunders favored lowering the amount ...
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FOMC Review: Tapering will Start “Soon” while First Rate Hike may Come in as Soon as 2022

The Fed turned more hawkish in September, with the first rate hike pushed forward to 2022. Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that QE tapering will come “soon”. The staff downgraded the GDP growth forecast for this year, but revised higher ...
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BOE Preview – How will New Members Shift the Views of Rate Hike Conditions?

Economic developments since the last meeting have raised concerns of “stagflation” in the UK, i.e. slow growth with strong inflation. As the main constraint to growth is supply chain, we do not expect this to derail BOC’s monetary policy stance ...
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FOMC Preview: Fed to Affirm Tapering Could Come This Year. Focus Turns to Dot Plot

Since the Jackson Hole symposium and the FOMC minutes, the pandemic has worsened in the US, while economic growth appears to be losing steam. These suggest that all monetary policy measures will stay unchanged with asset purchases staying at US$120B ...
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ECB to Slow Asset Purchases via PEPP. Growth and Inflation Outlook Upgraded

Two important messages delivered at the ECB meetings are: 1) the end of the front-loading of PEPP asset purchases and 2) acknowledgement of a more persistent inflation pressure. The policy rates were all kept unchanged with the main refi rate, ...
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BOC Stood Pat but Delivered Cautiously Optimistic Message

The loonie recovered modestly after the BOC meeting. As widely expected, policymakers left the overnight rate unchanged at 0.25% and QE purchases at CAD 2B/ week. Yet, they remained cautiously optimistic over the medium term economic outlook, despite disappointing GDP ...
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BOC Preview – QE Tapering to Pause as Economy Contracted in 2Q21

Torn between disappointing economic activities but rising inflation, higher vaccination rate but worsening Delta outbreak, and a federal election just 12 days after this week’s meeting, the BOC will likely stand on the sideline this month. Policymakers will keep its ...
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RBA Adopts Dovish Tapering as Delta Outbreak Expected to Hurt Growth in 3Q

At the September meeting, the RBA decided to reduce QE asset purchases to AUD 4B/week, from ADU 5B/ week previously. It also left the cash rate, as well as the yield target on the April 2024 bond, unchanged at 0.1% ...
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ECB Preview – Time to Lower Asset Purchases?

The pace of asset purchases in the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) in 4Q21 is the focus of this week’s ECB meeting. Following hawkish comments from some council members, especially chief economist Philiip Lane, hopes that an announcement related to ...
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RBNZ Left OCR Unchanged Amidst Latest Lockdown. Hawkishness Maintained

To everyone’s surprise, the RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 0.25% in August. The decision was made in light of the renewed New Zealand’s lockdown after a report of one coronavirus case. Policymakers, however, maintained a hawkish stance, suggesting that ...
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RBNZ Preview – Raising Rate as Least Regrets Option

The market has priced in a 25 bps hike, bringing the OCR to 0.5%, at this week’s RBNZ meeting. Much stronger-than-expected economic recovery since the last meeting, the rapidly rising inflation and inflation expectations, and a better job market are ...
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BOE Signals Earlier Unwinding of Balance Sheet. Modest Tightening On the Way

The BOE voted unanimously to keep Bank rate at 0.1%, and 7-1 to leave purchases of government bond at 875B pound. While the latter decision came less hawkish than we had anticipated (we expected 2 dissents), British pound got a ...
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BOE Preview – Awaiting Signals to Exit

The focus of this week’s BOE is whether the result of the policy review would be revealed. In particular, whether there will be guideline on BOE’s exit sequence of QE and record low policy rate. Meanwhile, economic projections in reflection ...
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RBA Sticks with Tapering in September, Shrugging Off Short-term Impacts of Lockdown

Surprisingly, the RBA remained optimistic about the economic outlook despite the lockdown in various states over the past weeks. At today’s meeting, the members decided to go ahead with QE tapering from September and upgraded economic forecasts. The central bank ...
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RBA Preview – Delaying Taper and Downgrading Near-Term Growth Forecasts

We expect the RBA to postpone the tapering policy announced last month. It will also downgrade GDP growth forecast for this year and revise the unemployment rate higher. All the above changes are driven by the unexpected lockdown in New ...
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FOMC Review: Economy Moving Toward Inflation and Employment Goals. FOMC Minutes and Jackson Holes in Focus

The Fed sounded cautiously optimistic at the July meeting. The members acknowledged continued improvements in economic activities and that “the economy has made progress toward” the “maximum employment and price stability goals”. While leaving all monetary policy measures unchanged, Chair ...
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FOMC Preview – Policy Stance to Stay Intact Despite Surging Inflation

With no updates on median dot plots and economic projections, the focus of this week’s FOMC meeting would be the policy statement and the press conference. Since the June meeting, inflation has continued to accelerate. Market optimism was, however, overshadowed ...
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ECB Pledges to Continue Front-load QE Purchases until Inflation Reaches 2% Sustainable

The ECB has updated the forward guidance on the policy rate, reflecting the new inflation target concluded in the strategic review. All monetary policy measures stay unchanged as it strives to achieve the symmetric 2% inflation target: The deposit rate ...
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ECB Preview: New Forward Guidance to Reflect New Inflation Target

ECB’s conclusion of the strategy review on July 8 has made this week’s meeting very important. Policymakers adjusted the inflation target to a symmetric 2%, allowing a temporary overshoot. Despite the significant change, no monetary policy is expected to change ...
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BOC Preview – Hawkish Stance to Maintain with More Tapering

Economic developments since the June meeting suggest that BOC would still maintain an upbeat tone and taper further at this week’s meeting. Policymakers will, however, maintain the forward guidance that the first rate hike would come in 2H22. The staff ...
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