USD/TRY Outlook: Recovery from 200SMA Struggles to Extend and Keep Risk of Fresh Weakness in Play

Technical analysis of Forex market

Monday’s close above daily close base, following bounce after short-lived probes below 200SMA, was initial positive signal. Recovery extension cracked converged 55/30SMA’s (5.3358 / 5.3459) but without clear break for now. Fears that lira could extend weakness after recent rally failed to clear 200SMA exist, but the pair needs to break above 20SMA (5.3704) to confirm reversal. On the other side, scenario of retesting 200SMA support (currently at 5.2796) remains on the table, with repeated daily close below 55SMA, expected to increase downside risk. Daily techs are in mixed mode and lack clearer direction signal for now, however, strengthening negative momentum warns of fresh weakness. Loss of lower pivot (200SMA) would risk extension towards another key support at 5.1323 (29 Nov low).

Res: 5.3388; 5.3459; 5.3589; 5.3704
Sup: 5.3000; 5.2796; 5.2461; 5.2012

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