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Week Ahead – Focus Remains on Virus Spread, Fiscal Stimulus, Rebounding Data, and Earnings

Key Economic Events

Saturday, July 18th

Monday, July 20th

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  • Brexit talks resume in London
  • US Sec of State Pompeo meets UK PM Johnson and Foreign Sec Raab
  • 21:30 ET China to keep 1-and-5 year loan prime rates steady
  • 21:30 ET Australia RBA Minutes of July Policy Meeting
  • 23:00 ET New Zealand Jun Credit Card Spending Y/Y: No est v -21.1% prior

Tuesday, July 21st

  • 8:00 ET Hungary Central Bank Rate Decision: Expected to keep rates steady, last meeting they cut unexpectedly
  • 8:30 ET Canada May Retail Sales M/M: No est v -26.4% prior
  • 19:30 ET Japan Jun CPI Y/Y: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior
  • 20:30 ET Australia Jun Westpac Leading Index M/M: No est v 0.19% prior

Wednesday, July 22nd

  • UK releases report on Russian meddling in British politics
  • 8:30 ET Canada Jun CPI M/M: No est v 0.3% prior
  • 10:00 ET US Jun Existing Home Sales: 4.80Me v 3.91M prior
  • 10:30 ET Weekly DOE oil inventories report

Thursday, July 23rd

  • South Africa Central Bank (SARB) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.50%
  • 2:00 ET Germany Aug GFK Consumer Confidence: No est v -9.6 prior
  • 2:45 ET France July Manufacturing Confidence:  No est v 77 prior
  • 7:00 ET BOE’s Haskel Speaks on the economic effects of Covid-19
  • 7:00 ET Turkey Central Bank Rate Decision: Expected to keep One-Week Repo rate unchanged at 8.25%
  • 8:30 ET Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims
  • 10:00 ET Eurozone July Advance Consumer Confidence: -12.3e v -14.7 prior

Friday, July 24th

  • 2:00 ET UK Jun Retail Sales (inc auto fuel) M/M: 9.0%e v 12.0% prior
  • 3:30 ET Germany July Prelim Manufacturing PMI: 47.0e v 45.2 prior
  • 4:00 ET Eurozone July Prelim Manufacturing PMI: 49.3e v 47.4 prior
  • 4:00 ET UK July Prelim Manufacturing PMI: 52.0e v 50.1 prior
  • 6:30 ET Russia Central Bank (CBR) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to cut rates by 25 basis points to 4.25%
  • 9:45 ET US July Markit Manufacturing PMI: 52.0e v 49.8 prior

Country

US

The focus in the US stays with the coronavirus response, reopening process and sluggish economic recovery.  COVID-19 continues to batter the Sunbelt and that is starting to derail the economic recovery.  Much attention will go to California and their recent restrictions which will hopefully slow the rapid spread.  Americans need to show signs they can change their behavior otherwise, the revival of the economic recovery will stall even further.

Earnings season will also be closely watched as corporate America will likely need to downgrade their outlook and as the risk for job cuts grow.  The recovery was not as quick and strong as hoped and businesses may be forced to shrink their labor force.  Key updates will come from Microsoft, IBM, Lockheed Martin, UBS, Tesla, Novartis, Unilever, Twitter, and Coca-Cola.

US Politics

President Trump’s new re-election strategy will likely go strongly on the offensive against former-VP Biden.  Trump had to shake up his campaign after a disappointing rally turnouts and abysmal polling numbers.  President Trump will