Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Delivery Vans Rush to Homes with Shoppers’ Treasure

Summary

United States: Delivery Vans Rush to Homes with Shoppers’ Treasure

• Retail sales jumped 1.7% in October, on the back of e-commerce and holiday sales categories. While these nominal figures are buoyed by rising inflation, a sustainable increase in real retail sales may signal an earlier start to holiday shopping this year. Housing supply measures fell 0.7% as demand for housing remains robust, but home builders are having difficulties securing supplies for construction.
• Next week: Home Sales (Mon & Wed), Durable Goods (Wed), Personal Income & Spending (Wed)

International: A Tough Summer for Japan’s Economy, But Better Times Ahead

• Japan’s Q3 GDP figures confirmed another challenging quarter for the economy, as ongoing COVID-related restrictions in Tokyo and the surrounding areas restrained activity. Overall GDP fell 0.8% quarter-over-quarter (not annualized), with large falls in both consumer and investment spending. The outlook for Q4 and beyond is better however, given the subsequent lifting of restrictions, and with the government announcing a new fiscal stimulus package this week.
• Next week: EZ PMIs (Tues), U.K. PMIs (Tues), NZ Monetary Policy Announ. (Wed)

Interest Rate Watch: Rising Rates and the Federal Debt

• Given that the federal government has borrowed a significant amount of money during the COVID pandemic, how much should we worry about rising rates and the federal debt? For now, the situation appears quite manageable.

Credit Market Insights: Businesses to Confront New Challenges in 2022

• Headlines this week have been littered with mentions of high-profile companies making large structural changes ahead of the new year. With high inflation looking like it has settled in for the near-term, expectations for interest rate increases pulled forward to next year and lending conditions showing early signs of tightening, many firms will have to adopt new strategies in 2022.

Topic of the Week: Thanksgiving Travel Set to Gobble Up Wallet Share

• As millions of Americans prepare to drive home for the holidays, they will likely notice the price at the pump moving higher and higher. Fluctuations in energy prices are a particularly visible display of inflation, and households are increasingly experiencing the sticker shock.

Full report here.